Markets traded cautiously on Wednesday as investors awaited a House vote to end the historic U.S. government shutdown, with optimism about resumed economic data releases supporting equities and Treasuries while oil tumbled on OPEC supply revisions and Bitcoin surrendered earlier gains.
Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!
Forex News Headlines & Data:
- OPEC flipped Q3 global oil market view from deficit to surplus, raising non-OPEC supply estimates by 890k bpd
- White House’s Hassett says he would accept Fed chair nomination, prefers 50bp cut over 25bp in December
- White House Press Secretary Leavitt says October jobs and CPI reports unlikely to be released due to shutdown
- Bank of Canada summary shows officials considered delaying October rate cut until after Carney budget details
- ECB’s Schnabel sees inflation risks tilted “a little bit” to upside as euro area economy recovers
- Japan Reuters Tankan Index for November 2025: 17.0 (10.0 forecast; 8.0 previous)
- Australia Home Loans for September 30, 2025: 4.7% q/q (2.9% q/q forecast; 2.4% q/q previous)
- Japan Machine Tool Orders for October 2025: 16.8% y/y (10.2% y/y forecast; 9.9% y/y previous)
- Germany Inflation Rate Final for October 2025: 0.3% m/m, 2.3% y/y (both as forecast)
- U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications for November 7, 2025: 0.6% (-1.9% previous)
- Canada Building Permits for September 2025: 4.5% m/m (1.2% m/m forecast; -1.2% m/m previous)
- RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones warned markets may be underestimating macroeconomic and geopolitical risks
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama warned government is watching for excessive currency moves with high urgency
- Fed’s Williams said next step in balance sheet strategy will likely be gradual asset purchases
- Atlanta Fed’s Bostic sees policy as “marginally restrictive,” favors holding rates steady for now
Broad Market Price Action:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Forex Chart by TradingView
It was mostly quiet trading on Wednesday as traders positioned ahead of an expected House vote to end the government shutdown, though notable intraday moves were seen during the U.S. trading session.
The S&P 500 edged up 0.06% to close at 6,852.7, with the index initially holding steady through Asian and London sessions before experiencing light volatility during the U.S. morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its winning streak to four consecutive days, hitting fresh all-time highs as investors rotated into blue-chip stocks. The modest equity gains came despite there being no direct equity-specific catalysts, suggesting some traders may have been positioning for improved sentiment once economic data releases resume following the government reopening.
WTI crude oil suffered sharp losses, plunging 3.98% to $58.4, in a move that began during the Asian session and accelerated through U.S. trading hours. The decline correlated closely with OPEC’s release of its monthly report showing the group flipped its Q3 global oil market estimate from a deficit to a 500,000 bpd surplus, driven by higher-than-expected U.S. production. The bearish supply outlook overshadowed any support from geopolitical tensions or the government shutdown’s impact on energy markets.
Gold posted a notable 1.68% rally to $4,195.8, with the precious metal’s strongest gains materializing during the U.S. morning session. The advance seemed to correlate with falling Treasury yields and renewed safe-haven demand, possibly related to uncertainty around the Fed’s December policy decision given National Economic Council Director Hassett’s public comments favoring a 50 basis point rate cut over the 25bp move markets are pricing in.
Bitcoin experienced a volatile session, initially rallying during the London morning to post gains before reversing sharply during U.S. trading hours to close down 0.90% at $101,671.7. There were no direct cryptocurrency-specific news to point to for the reversal, so it’s possible that profit-taking emerged after the recent rally, or that the asset responded to broader risk-off positioning during the U.S. afternoon.
The 10-year Treasury yield declined 0.20% to around 4.1%, with the drop intensifying during the U.S. session. The move lower in yields appeared to correlate with expectations that the Fed will have room to cut rates next month, particularly after White House officials indicated the October employment and CPI reports are unlikely to be released due to the shutdown—leaving policymakers with incomplete data heading into their December meeting.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Forex Chart by TradingView
The U.S. dollar traded mixed but closed as a net loser against most major currencies on Wednesday, following an intraday pattern of early strength that gave way to sustained weakness during U.S. trading hours.
During the Asian session, the dollar saw modest volatility and traded net positive early on before reversing lower heading into the London open. There were no major U.S.-specific catalysts during this period, though the stronger-than-expected Japan Reuters Tankan survey (17.0 vs 10.0 forecast) may have supported risk sentiment. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama’s verbal intervention warning about excessive currency moves likely contributed to some yen weakness during this window, which may have driven some flows into the Greenback.
At the London open, the dollar’s losses from late Asia proved short-lived as the greenback reversed higher and traded mixed but mostly net positive heading into the U.S. session. The morning release of German inflation data—which came in exactly as forecast at 2.3% y/y—provided no new directional catalyst. The dollar’s resilience during this period seemed to reflect positioning adjustments ahead of key U.S. developments, particularly the anticipated House vote on ending the government shutdown.
The U.S. session brought the day’s most significant moves, with the dollar initially extending its gains before experiencing a sharp reversal that carried through the London close. The pivot lower appeared to correlate with the cluster of Federal Reserve member speeches marked on the charts around midday. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett’s comments proved particularly notable, as he indicated he would accept the Fed chair nomination if offered and expressed preference for a 50 basis point rate cut in December rather than the 25bp move markets expect. This more dovish stance than the market was pricing seemed to weigh on the dollar, as did Fed Governor Williams’ remarks about gradually purchasing assets to maintain ample reserves and Atlanta Fed President Bostic’s characterization of policy as only “marginally restrictive.”
White House Press Secretary Leavitt’s confirmation that October jobs and CPI data are unlikely to be released added another layer of uncertainty, as this data vacuum makes it harder for both the Fed and markets to assess the appropriate policy path. After the London close, the dollar traded mostly sideways with a slight bounce, possibly reflecting some position-squaring ahead of Thursday’s Australian employment data and UK GDP releases.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales for October 2025 at 9:45 pm GMT
- New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for September 2025 at 9:45 pm GMT
- Japan Producer Prices Index Growth Rate for October 2025 at 11:50 pm GMT
- Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations for November 2025 at 12:00 am GMT
- U.K. RICS House Price Balance for October 2025 at 12:01 am GMT
- Australia Employment Change & Unemployment Rate for October 2025 at 12:30 am GMT
- U.K. GDP for September 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
- U.K. Industrial & Manufacturing Production for September 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
- Swiss Producer & Import Prices for October 2025 at 7:30 am GMT
- Euro area ECB Economic Bulletin at 9:00 am GMT
- U.K. Labour Productivity for September 30, 2025 at 9:30 am GMT
- Euro area Industrial Production for September 2025 at 10:00 am GMT
- Euro area ECB Buch Speech at 10:00 am GMT
- Euro area ECB Donnery Speech at 10:30 am GMT
- U.K. NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker for October 2025 at 12:00 pm GMT
- Euro area ECB Elderson Speech at 1:00 pm GMT
Thursday’s calendar centers on two critical data releases that could drive significant currency volatility. Australia’s employment report will be closely watched after Wednesday’s surprisingly strong home loans data suggested the RBA’s restrictive policy stance may be working less effectively than hoped in cooling the economy. Any signs of resilient job growth could further cement expectations that the RBA will maintain rates steady well into 2026, potentially supporting the Australian dollar. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print might revive rate cut speculation and pressure the currency.
The U.K.’s September GDP reading represents another potential high-impact event, with markets sensitive to any signs of economic momentum—or lack thereof—as the Bank of England navigates its own policy path. A soft GDP print could reinforce concerns about the UK economy’s trajectory and weigh on sterling, while a stronger reading might provide temporary relief for the pound.
Beyond the scheduled data, markets remain highly sensitive to fresh developments on the U.S. government reopening front. The House vote outcome and any clarity on when delayed economic reports—particularly the October jobs and CPI data—might be released could significantly impact Fed policy expectations and dollar positioning.
Commentary from the multiple ECB speakers scheduled throughout the European session may also influence euro area rate expectations, particularly following Schnabel’s Wednesday remarks about upside inflation risks. Finally, any fresh news on the U.S.-China trade front continues to represent a wildcard for risk sentiment and currency markets, though no major developments are currently scheduled.
Stay frosty out there, forex friends, and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when planning to take on risk!
