It was another down day for the dollar, as market players continued to price in a September Fed rate cut even after the U.S. retail sales report beat estimates.
Meanwhile, gold struck another record high at the $3,700 levels while crude oil soared nearly 2% for the day.
Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading sessions!
Headlines:
- New Zealand Food Price Index for August 2025: 5.0% (5.2% forecast; 5.0% previous)
- Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index for July 2025: 0.5% (0.2% forecast; 0.5% previous)
- China said it plans to unveil new policy measures to boost consumption
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U.K. Claimant Count Change for August 2025: 17.4k (5.0k forecast; -6.2k previous)
- U.K. Employment Change for July 2025: 232.0k (150.0k forecast; 238.0k previous)
- U.K. Unemployment Rate for July 2025: 4.7% (4.7% forecast; 4.7% previous)
- U.K. Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) for July 2025: 4.7% (4.5% forecast; 4.6% previous)
- Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for September 2025: 37.3 (26.0 forecast; 34.7 previous)
- Euro area Industrial Production for July 2025: 1.8% y/y (0.9% y/y forecast; 0.2% y/y previous); 0.3% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; -1.3% m/m previous)
- Euro area Labour Cost Index Final for June 30, 2025: 3.6% y/y (3.7% y/y forecast; 3.4% y/y previous)
- Euro area Wage Growth for June 30, 2025: 3.7% y/y (3.6% y/y forecast; 3.4% y/y previous)
- Euro area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for September 2025: 26.1 (24.0 forecast; 25.1 previous)
- Mixed commentary from ECB officials:
- ECB official Villeroy noted that French growth is not strong enough but remains positive
- ECB official Scicluna said that small inflation deviations are no reason to panic but that EUR appreciation could undermine competitiveness
- ECB official Kazaks said that the reduction in central bank’s interest rates have already been pretty significant
- ECB official Simkus suggested that easing cycle is nearing its end but not likely over
- Trump reiterated that Ukraine needs to reach a deal in order to end the war, may arrange meeting between the two presidents
- European Commission President von der Leyen had a phone call with Trump to discuss joint efforts to increase pressure on Russia
- Canada Housing Starts for August 2025: 245.8k (240.0k forecast; 294.1k previous)
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Canada Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for August 2025: -0.1% m/m (-0.1% m/m forecast; 0.3% m/m previous); 1.9% y/y (1.8% y/y forecast; 1.7% y/y previous)
- Canada Core Consumer Price Index Growth Rate 0.0% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous); 2.6% y/y (2.6% y/y forecast; 2.6% y/y previous)
- U.S. Import Prices for August 2025: 0.3% m/m (0.1% m/m forecast; 0.4% m/m previous); 0.0% y/y (0.2% y/y forecast; -0.2% y/y previous)
- U.S. Export Prices for August 2025: 0.3% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous); 3.4% y/y (2.7% y/y forecast; 2.2% y/y previous)
- U.S. Retail Sales for August 2025: 0.6% m/m (0.4% m/m forecast; 0.5% m/m previous); 5.0% y/y (3.2% y/y forecast; 3.9% y/y previous)
- U.S. Industrial Production for August 2025: 0.1% (0.0% forecast; -0.1% previous); 0.9% y/y (1.2% y/y forecast; 1.4% y/y previous)
- U.S. Manufacturing Production for August 2025: 0.2% m/m (0.0% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous); 0.9% y/y (1.2% y/y forecast; 1.4% y/y previous)
- U.S. Capacity Utilization Rate for August 2025: 77.4% (77.4% forecast; 77.5% previous)
- U.S. Business Inventories for July 2025: 0.2% m/m (0.3% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m previous)
- U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for September 2025: 32.0 (33.0 forecast; 32.0 previous)
- Chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran confirmed to attend September FOMC meeting this week
- Trump announced they’ve reached a deal on TikTok that will close in 30-45 days
- New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index for September 16, 2025: -0.8% (-4.0% forecast; -4.3% previous)
- U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change for September 12, 2025: -3.42M (1.25M previous)
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Consolidation was the name of the game for the most part of the Asian trading session, as risk assets traded sideways while holding out for bigger market catalysts.
WTI crude oil, which initially dipped during the London market open, ripped higher once again while geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia remained in play, following earlier drone attacks. Trump reiterated that Ukrainian President Zelensky needs to strike a deal in order to end the war, later on holding a phone call with European Commission head von der Leyen to discuss joint efforts to pressure Russia.
Gold also found some support from safe-haven flows on geopolitics, as well as sustained dollar weakness leading up to the FOMC decision later this week. The precious metal hit fresh record highs around $3,700 around the start of the U.S. session to close 0.23% higher for the day.
Treasury yields continued to slump in reaction to dollar declines, as the currency barely drew any support from slightly upbeat U.S. retail sales data. U.S. equity indices, however, were unable to hold on to gains from early in the session, as investors likely booked some profits ahead of FOMC day. The S&P 500 index closed 0.13% lower while the Nasdaq dipped 0.07% as tech sector stocks retreated.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The Greenback fought to keep its head above water during the Asian trading session on the lack of major catalysts but soon caved to another round of selling while risk-taking picked up. After some initial losses, AUD and NZD soon took advantage of risk appetite thanks to news of China unveiling new policies to boost consumption.
U.K. jobs data turned out mixed, with the headline claimant count figure coming in weaker than expected while the average earnings index hit the mark, barely denting the pound’s gains. Germany reported a stronger than expected ZEW sentiment index, underscoring the ECB’s more optimistic outlook in last week’s statement and allowing EUR to extend its climb against the dollar.
U.S. retail sales beat expectations with a 0.6% monthly gain for the headline figure versus the projected 0.4% uptick, but these did little to prevent the dollar from tumbling further. Industrial production and capacity utilization data also came in broadly in line with expectations, but market positioning for a dovish Fed announcement appeared to outweigh these results, leading USD to close lower across the board for another day.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- U.K. Consumer Price Index Report for August 2025 at 6:00 am GMT
- China FDI (YTD) YoY for August 2025
- Euro area ECB President Lagarde Speech at 7:30 am GMT
- Euro area Consumer Price Index Growth Rate Final for August 2025 at 9:00 am GMT
- U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate & Applications for September 12, 2025 at 11:00 am GMT
- Canada Foreign Securities Purchases for July 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Housing Starts for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Building Permits Prel for August 2025 at 12:30 pm GMT
- Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision for September 17, 2025 at 1:45 pm GMT
- Canada BoC Press Conference at 2:30 pm GMT
- U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for September 12, 2025 at 2:30 pm GMT
- Germany Bundesbank Nagel Speech at 5:00 pm GMT
- U.S. FOMC Statement & Economic Projections at 6:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Fed Press Conference at 6:30 pm GMT
- New Zealand GDP Growth Rate for June 30, 2025 at 10:45 pm GMT
- Japan Machinery Orders for July 2025 at 11:50 pm GMT
It’s FOMC day, ladies and gents!
Brace yourselves for elevated volatility throughout the day, as markets gear up for the highly-anticipated Fed announcement that could set the tone for longer-term USD trends and risk sentiment.
Prior to that, the U.K. CPI release is also worth watching since it could shape expectations for the BOE decision later in the week. The BOC statement is lined up as well, and many are expecting the central bank to announce a “hawkish cut” this time.
As always, look out for global trade developments and geopolitical headlines that could influence overall market sentiment. Stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
