- Prior was +0.6%
- Ex-autos +1.9% vs +1.4% expected
- Prior ex autos +0.5%
- Ex autos and gas ++0.6% vs +0.4% prior (revised to +0.2%)
- Control group +0.7% vs +0.2% expected
- Prior control +0.5%
- Retail sales y/y +% vs +3.7% prior
Never underestimate the spending power of the US consumer. That’s two solid data points today ahead of a Fed chairman-in-waiting who says he’s going to cut rates anyway.
The control group reading of +0.7% m/m matches the highest reading since last June.
S&P 500 futures were up 26 points ahead of the report but little changed afterwards with the focus on Iran.
The US Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report is one of the most closely watched gauges of consumer spending, capturing sales across brick-and-mortar stores, e-commerce, restaurants, and bars. Because consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of US economic activity, the release typically moves markets and shapes expectations for GDP, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. The data are seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted, so nominal gains can overstate real purchasing power during periods of elevated prices.
February 2026 data, released April 1, showed consumer spending holding up better than expected despite a softening labor market and lingering price pressures. Advance estimates put retail and food services sales at $738.4 billion, up 0.6% from January and 3.7% above February 2025. The result topped consensus forecasts of around 0.5% growth and marked a clear rebound from a weak start to the year — January’s initial reading of a 0.2% decline was revised to a slightly smaller 0.1% drop, while December 2025 came in essentially flat.
Over the three months from December through February, sales were up 3.1% from the same period a year earlier, suggesting moderate underlying momentum rather than a breakout. Food services and drinking places were a standout, rising 5.2% year-over-year, a sign that discretionary spending on dining out has remained resilient. Today’s release — March 2026 advance sales and February’s fuller monthly figures — was rescheduled from April 16 to April 21, 2026.
